Competition Drone Risk Analysis

Owned by Aaron Dyck (Deactivated), created
Last updated: 2022-12-04 by Anthony Luo
3 min read

Risk Identification (use to brainstorm risks)

Think about the follow categories when creating a list of risks:

Technical: Requirements, Technology, Interfaces, Performance, Quality

External: Customer, Contract, Market, Supplier

Organizational: Project Dependencies, Logistics, Resources, Budget

Project Management: Planning, Schedule, Estimation, Controlling, Communication

 

added to Analysis and Response

General Failures

  1. Part delivery is much slower than expected, pushing back testing and therefore project deadlines

  2. Members miss deliverable due to increased work load

  3. Schedule didn’t allow for multiple iterations to occur, now we’re stuck with a less-than-ideal product

  4. The drone isn’t competitive

  5. The drone crashing during competition

  6. battery level low

Mechanical Airframe Failures

  1. Unanticipated electromagnetic shielding/interference on the frame, requiring electronics to be placed elsewhere

  2. Bolts missing/coming off during flight

  3. Landing gear fails on impact

  4. Barbies are not secured properly in flight

  5. Boards are not secured in flight

  6. Water gets into the avionics compartment

  7. Parts disconnect during flight (wings, tail)

  8. Control surfaces fail

  9. Motor failure

  10. Sensors dislodged

  11. Heat causing deformation of 3D printed parts

  12. Mechanical failures (permanent deformation or breaking) caused by stresses

  13. Elastic deformation of frame due to stresses

  14. Imperfections in machined parts (3D printed brackets included) causing stress concentrations → fracture → propagate to fatal failure

Ground Station Failures

  1. Antenna towers fall over

  2. Wires disconnect in inaccessible regions of the tower

  3. Devices and equipment are damaged in transport, we only find out when we get there

  4. Power failures

  5. Controls loops failure

  6. Antennas damaged by weather (hail, due to stresses from wind, water damage)

  7. Over/undervolting by accident

  8.  

Electronic Failures

  1. Wires disconnecting

  2. Boards shorting

  3. static electricity (possible ground plane)

  4. Inclement weather during flight (limit flight window)

  5. Antenna Brownout → drone altitude hold, antenna pattern search → fatal failure.

  6. hardfault (failover)

  7. Batteries not charged

    1. batteries discharging past safe levels

  8. Arc short

  9. Overheating & auto-shutoff

Software Failures

  1. Sens failure (glide)

  2. autopilot failure (pilot takeover)

  3. fly by wire failure

    1. lost AHRS // no inertial nav → fatal failure

    2. incorrect command deciphering → pilot disarm / takeover → fatal failure

    3. control surface output inverted. → pilot disarm/takeover → fatal failure.

  4. telemetry lost (follow VFR & divert)

    1. telemetry modem failure

    2. board modem module failure

    3. software manager failure.

  5. controls/PID failure

    1. incorrect PID values

    2. controls runaway (I term runaway?)

    3. flipped motor direction

  6. RC link lost (divert and glide)

  7. Landing Pad not found

    1. search → find?

  8. heading lost

    1. see 3, 6.

  9. RF Interference from other teams/environment

  10.  

Pilot failures

  • improper site assessment

    • flying into obstacles // not being aware of restricted flight areas

  • improper communication

  • heat?cold?

  • dehydration

Risk Analysis (use to understand impact)

The risk score is based on two axis, Probability and Impact. Use the following chart to understand where a risk falls based on these two factors.

 

SEVERITY

 

SEVERITY

PROBABILITY

ACCEPTABLE
Rating: 10

TOLERABLE
Rating: 50

EXTREME
Rating: 100

IMPROBABLE (0%-30%)

Score: 3 (low)

Score: 15 (low)

Score: 30 (Medium)

UNLIKELY (30%-60%)

Score: 6 (low)

Score: 30 (Medium)

Score: 60 (High)

POSSIBLE (60%-80%)

Score: 8 (low)

Score: 40 (Medium)

Score: 80 (Extreme)

PROBABLE (80%-100%)

Score: 10 (Low)

Score: 50 (High)

Score: 100 (Extreme)

 

Use the following table to analyze each risk brought up in the “Risk Identification” stage

Risk Event

Related Subteam

Probability % (P)

Severity Rating (S)

Risk Score (P*S)

Risk Event

Related Subteam

Probability % (P)

Severity Rating (S)

Risk Score (P*S)

XXX

Competition paperwork isn’t finished on time leading to not being able to compete

all

Possible

 

Extreme

Extreme 80

The competition drone doesn’t fly adequately enough to be competitive

all

Possible

Tolerable

Medium 40

Risk Response (use to mitigate risks)

Risk Event

Risk Response

Assignee (RSE)

Risk Event

Risk Response

Assignee (RSE)

Competition paperwork isn’t finished on time leading to not being able to compete

  • Sysint to make sure templates and the bones of the report is finished

@Hamza Ali to finish the rough draft for the report

The competition drone doesn’t fly adequately enough to be competitive

  • Iterate designs and test code by scheduling test flights and organizing different key areas to test each flight

@Aaron Dyck (Deactivated) schedule flights and help with organizing flights

Risk Monitoring (use to document risks)

Risk Event
What happened?

Risk Impact
What consequence(s) occurred?

Future Mitigation
What can you do to prevent this from happening again?

Risk Event
What happened?

Risk Impact
What consequence(s) occurred?

Future Mitigation
What can you do to prevent this from happening again?

Deadline for competition drone timeline went over

  • We don’t have a good way to keep track of deadlines, or see how other late deliverables affect the overall timeline

  • Prioritize tasks based on importance to not overwork members, while still getting the most important tasks finished